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Probabilistic Attribution

Understand how Pivotstring tracks conversions when click IDs are unavailable using intelligent matching techniques.

What is Probabilistic Attribution?

Probabilistic attribution is a tracking method used when click IDs or device identifiers are unavailable. It relies on contextual data such as campaign, affiliate, and sub IDs to match conversions.

With modern privacy restrictions (iOS, Android), deterministic tracking is not always possible.

Why It Is Needed

  • Track conversions without click IDs
  • Maintain attribution accuracy under privacy restrictions
  • Link conversions using campaign and affiliate data
  • Ensure fair reporting for affiliates

How It Works in Pivotstring

1. Click URL Setup

https://caplnk.com/cb?d={domain_id}&c={campaign_id}&a={affiliate_id}&sub_aff_id6={replace_it}

2. Advertiser Postback URL

https://caplnk.com/pb?d={domain_id}&sub_adv_id6={sub_aff_id6}|{campaign_id},{affiliate_id}

3. Matching Logic

  • Click data stored with sub_aff_id6, campaign_id, affiliate_id
  • Postback uses sub_adv_id6 to match conversions
  • If click_id exists → deterministic attribution
  • Else → probabilistic matching is applied

Probabilistic matching is less precise than deterministic tracking but essential when IDs are missing.

Implementation Steps

For Affiliates

  • Pass sub_aff_id6 in all click URLs
  • Include campaign_id and affiliate_id
caplnk.com/cb?d=111&c=222&a=333&sub_aff_id6=789

For Advertisers

  • Configure postback with sub_adv_id6 parameter
  • Ensure matching campaign and affiliate IDs
https://caplnk.com/pb?d=111&sub_adv_id6=789|111,222

Best Practices

  • Use consistent campaign and affiliate IDs
  • Ensure unique sub_aff_id6 per source
  • Set appropriate attribution windows
  • Fallback to probabilistic only when needed
  • Monitor fraud signals (IP, timestamp)

Conclusion

Probabilistic attribution ensures continued tracking accuracy when deterministic identifiers are unavailable. By using sub IDs and structured postbacks, Pivotstring maintains reliable attribution even in privacy-restricted environments.