Probabilistic Attribution

# What is Probabilistic Attribution?

In the evolving world of digital advertising, especially with increasing privacy restrictions (such as on iOS and Android), traditional click-ID tracking is becoming less reliable. Probabilistic attribution compensates for missing click IDs by using other identifiers (campaign IDs, affiliate IDs, publisher IDs, sub-IDs, etc) and matching them based on rules and heuristics rather than a strict “click ID → conversion” match.

With privacy changes, some networks may no longer pass a click ID or unique device identifier. Platforms like PivotString adopt attribution methods that rely on the context of the click rather than a single click token.

# Why it is needed in PivotString

• Tracking conversions without a guaranteed click ID.
• Capturing campaign, affiliate, and sub-affiliate identifiers at click time.
• Matching conversions post-click using identifiers.
• Maintaining attribution accuracy for affiliates under privacy constraints.

# How it works in PivotString

Here’s how you can set it up using your sub-ID mechanism and parameters:

Click URL Setup

Include &sub_aff_id6={sub_aff_id6} in the affiliate tracking link:

https://caplnk.com/cb?d={domain_id}c={campaign_id}&a={affiliate_id}&sub_aff_id6={replace_it}

Advertiser Postback URL

Advertisers should send conversions to PivotString with:

&sub_adv_id6={sub_aff_id6}|{campaign_id},{affiliate_id}

Example:

https://caplnk.com/pb?d={domain_id}&sub_adv_id6={sub_aff_id6}|{campaign_id},{affiliate_id}

Matching Logic

• PivotString logs sub_aff_id6, campaign_id, affiliate_id, timestamp.
• On conversion, sub_adv_id6 is used to match clicks probabilistically.
• If click ID is present, deterministic attribution is used; otherwise probabilistic matching.

# Implementation Steps for Affiliates & Advertisers

For Affiliates / Publishers:

• Pass sub_aff_id6 in all click links.
• Include campaign_id and affiliate_id in the link.
• Example: caplnk.com/cb?d=111c=222&a=333&sub_aff_id6=789

For Advertisers:

• Configure postback URL with sub_adv_id6={sub_aff_id6}|{campaign_id},{affiliate_id}.
• Example: https://caplnk.com/pb?d=111&sub_adv_id6=789|111,222
• Optionally add &vta=1 for view-through attribution.

# Best Practices & Tips

• Set an attribution window (e.g., 24 hours, 7 days).
• Ensure unique sub_aff_id6 per sub-affiliate.
• Maintain consistent campaign and affiliate IDs.
• Use deterministic attribution where click ID is available; fallback to probabilistic otherwise.
• Apply heuristics (IP, timestamp) to detect fraud and improve matching.
• Show deterministic vs probabilistic conversions in reports for transparency.

# Conclusion

Probabilistic attribution helps maintain accurate conversion tracking even when click IDs are unavailable. With PivotString, use {sub_aff_id6} in your click URL and sub_adv_id6={sub_aff_id6}|{campaign_id},{affiliate_id} in postbacks to track and attribute conversions effectively. Following the best practices ensures fair and reliable affiliate reporting.